It's been said the only two things in life that are certain are death and taxes.
If an asteroid aimed frighteningly close to the Home Planet keeps to its path on April 13, 2036, then well, forget the taxes.
The scenario is not science fiction.
"The destruction is enormous [if it hits Earth]," said Dr. Irving Robbins of South Beach, director of the College of Staten Island Astrophysical Observatory in Willowbrook. "We have to watch that very closely. We shouldn't be an ostrich and stick our head in the ground."
The CSI observatory -- funded by NASA and the National Science Foundation and commissioned by the International Astronomical Union -- does research to discover and monitor asteroids and comets, defined as Near Earth Objects.
If you like to gamble, scientists have predicted the probability of a direct hit in 2036 as 1 in 6,250 -- about the same likelihood as being involved in a train wreck.
Compare that to these odds: The chance of winning the New York Lotto jackpot is 1 in 18,000,000, the chance of being struck by lightning is 1 in 576,000 and the likelihood of being killed in a car accident is 1 in 5,000.
The asteroid -- appropriately named Apophis, Greek for The Destroyer -- could squeeze past within a couple hundred thousand miles -- but even a tiny change in its course in the other direction could have dire consequences, Robbins said.
"From a space point of view, [200,000 miles is] very, very close," he said.
Robbins estimated that the asteroid is traveling at a speed of 25,000 mph to 100,000 mph and packs enough energy to equal "millions or billions" of atomic bombs. A direct hit would wreak havoc with the Earth's atmosphere, cause a "tremendous amount" of acid rain and spread fire all over the planet.
"If could be global," he said.
Can anything be done to divert it?
One possibility is to send a manned mission to space and use a rocket to steer it away, Robbins said. But that won't happen unless time and resources are devoted to studying space objects.
Earth is overdue for a devastating impact, he noted.
"We're going to get another big hit," he said. "Let's do something about it."
ONE MILLION ASTEROIDS
Asteroids are celestial bodies, some planet-like in nature, that normally orbit the sun between Jupiter and Mars. There are about 285,000 known asteroids, but Robbins believes the real number is closer to a million.
Of more than 300 observatories in the world that look for new asteroids and comets and do research, about 100 are in the United States, including two in New York City -- one at Columbia University and CSI's sky eye. If you include amateur observatories, there are 1,000 worldwide.
Astronomers are constantly discovering -- and rediscovering -- asteroids, Robbins said. When one is found, the observatory that spots it first is granted the right to name it. Robbins has come as close as within an hour of discovering an asteroid several times, he said.
He has a name picked out for his first discovery.
"My first one is going to be named Staten Island," he said. "There should be one named Staten Island."
BUDDING ASTRONOMERS
More than 1,000 students take astronomy classes at CSI each year, Robbins said, though only a handful join him in the observatory to do research.
One of them, Ankoosh Jain, 28, of Sunnyside, spent time in the observatory last fall, learning to take pictures of the solar system and looking for new asteroids.
By taking numerous photos of the same location in a short period of time, and looking for any movement in the picture, astronomers can locate asteroids.
Jain, a senior computer science major at CSI, said he hopes to return to do research at the observatory in the future as a hobby and urges others to do the same.
"People should know what's going on in the future," Jain said. "If you don't do any research on asteroids, you don't know if they're going to hit us."
Prof. William LaCurtis, who joined the CSI faculty last year, said it's crucial that students learn about the solar system and the ramifications space objects can have on our existence. He spends about 20 hours in the observatory each week, doing research.
"I think any time you increase people's knowledge of the world around them, the universe around them, that's important," the Eltingville resident said. "Not to mention that it's important to keep track of these things."
LaCurtis noted that "light pollution" from big-city street lights and homes handicaps local skywatchers. The observatory that beat out CSI for naming rights for four asteroids is located in the Arizona desert, where it's pitch-black at night.
Still, he said, "I find it fascinating that we're able to accomplish what we accomplish."
